Resisting vs. Profiting From Change

Years ago, when I lived in Chapel Hill, the Harris Teeter put me in a self-checkout lane.

I hated it.

Raised hell about it.

I had every reason under the sun for why it sucked:

-->People didn't know how to use it, so they were slow.

-->The software ran too slow

-->Job elimination

-->I DON'T WANT IT TO CHANGE!!!!!

At the time, I predicted that self-checkouts wouldn't last.

They were a novelty.

A distraction.

Why are we even talking about the checkout when the real problem is grocery prices anyway?

That was 20 years ago; of course, self-checkouts are ubiquitous now.

Consumers are used to them, the software has improved, and unless there are a bunch of lamplighters and Blockbuster clerks hiding somewhere, job elimination is just a part of life.

Self-checkout is here to stay, and often, it's better.

Not always, of course. When I have 100 items at the grocery store, I like a cashier. But when I've got one box of nails at Lowes, and the guy in front of me has the framing package for an entire deck, I'll take the self-checkout every time.

Still, I fought tooth and nail against back in Chapel Hill, going so far as to declare that I'd never shop at any store that only offered self-checkout.

It seems silly in retrospect.

The folks resisting electric cars these days seem just as silly.

Some of them to an absurd level.

A good friend of mine swears up and down that in that giant storm in Texas last year, there were tens of thousands of drivers stranded because "electric cars don't work when it's cold." -- this is not true, of course.

When an electric car blows up (rare), these folks have a fit about it. "See, not me! You just can't trust these things!!!" -- as if there haven't been thousands of ICE cars that have exploded.

And some say, "I'm not buying one because the government is trying to make me, and I'm a free person!" -- as if the government doesn't already regulate the hell out of ICE vehicles

All of this reminds me of how I reacted to self-checkout.

And I predict electric vehicles will dominate the auto market sooner than we think, like self-checkout in the retail industry.

And for the same reason. For most drivers, most of the time, the driving experience of an electric vehicle will be superior. No gas stations, oil changes, rapid charging, and practically unlimited mileage appeal to kids who didn't grow up with gasoline engines and are not set in their ways like my generation.

But unlike how I reacted to self-checkout, I intend to profit from the change this time.

Currently, the market for self-checkout systems is valued at just under $5B and is expected to hit $6.5B this year.

In another decade, it's projected to be around $20B.

I don't know where I would have invested the money, but imagine if I'd invested in self-checkout back when I thought it could never work at a broad scale!

I probably wouldn't be working my Ten-Ten-Ten plan because I'd already be retired.

So, while I'll never give up my 1st Gen Tundra and Sequoias, that's not stopping me from betting on electric cars.

Both Tesla and Piedmont Lithium are down today; I think I'll pick up a few shares.